RESEC

I'm becoming involved in an organisation called RESEC - an almost acronym for Research into Specialise Elderly Care. RESEC is separate from, but sponsored by a private business, the European Care Group, which provides a range of services in the field of care for the elderly, mentally ill and those with learning and behavioral difficulties. It is intended that at some stage RESEC will become a charity. On Tuesday evening, a few of us met for dinner in Beaumaris, Ynys Mon. Our purpose was to discuss what aspects of elderly care, with an emphasis on people supporting neurological illness could be appropriately tackled at a Conference we are considering arranging early next year.

The more I become involved with care of the elderly, the more I realise that this policy area is one of the most urgent facing any future UK Government. The number of people who will need support is increasing at a frighteningly rapid rate. The issue is not being approached by Government with anything like enough urgency, and nothing like sufficient Government money. The usual phrase for this sort of thing is a 'Demographic Time bomb'. Well, this is a very big bomb indeed, and we're not equipped to deal with it.

The main reason that we were in Beaumaris, is that its close to Bangor, where the University is a leading research base into dementia and specialist elderly care. We hope to work closely with Professor Bob Woods of the University. I've also agreed to take part in two 'think tank' sessions at Green College, Oxford based on what should be the approach to tackling this emerging challenge to Government. Inevitably, the subject will be cropping up from time to time on this blog.

Its only £2.7 billion, Gordon.

Is the Crewe and Nantwich By-election the most expensive in history? Of course it could be that today's decision by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to borrow another £2,700,000,000 to give another £120 to 22 million people earning up to about £40,000 per annum was nothing to do with the by-election. But you have to admit that it does look a bit odd, a bit of a coincidence.

In general, I've always been supportive of raising the personal tax allowance as much as can be afforded - to take people out of the income tax system altogether. So today's shock decision to raise the allowance for all 22 million taxpayers by £600 does sound rather a good thing to me - if its part of a planned budget. But today's announcement does not seem tp have been planned at all. It was Her Majesty's Government rewriting its March budget as a panic measure, with no real idea where the money is to come from, simply in order to save the Prime Minister's political skin.

I do not think this will work. The British people have never been impressed by a Prime Minister who has lost control - and Gordon Brown now has about as much control of his own destiny as a cork adrift on an angry sea. Still I shouldn't complain. I'm £120 better off tonight than I expected t be this morning, as well as the extra that's to come on my winter fuel allowance (unless he's changed his mind about that). But there is a problem, and its the usual one that appears after going on a spending spree with the plastic - there will be bills to pay tomorrow.

Day in Llanystumdwy

Snowdonia in the sunshine is an exceedingly beautiful place - even if her most evocative mood is when she's glowering under low cloud, dark and menacing. We travelled from Beaumaris, down the Lleyn, across to Pwllelli, and stopped for most of the day at Llanystumdwy, to take in some David Lloyd George history.

It was very quiet in the Museum. We had it to ourselves. Even the cheerful waitress at the next door Dwyfor Cafe has never visited - despite being offered free entry! Odd I thought, because Lloyd George was, without doubt one of Britain's greatest Prime ministers. Its a remarkable story - a Criccieth solicitor going to Westminster, and through political fleetfootedness, courageous sticking to principle, and oratorical skill, became Prime Minister for 5 years. Remarkably, he was a Liberal who depended on Conservative support to maintain his premiership throughout, and lost office only when he lost the Conservatives - over the Irish question. The most impressive sliver of information I recall about Lloyd George was his opposition to rubbing the German's noses in it at Versailles. If only the French, Americans and Italians had listened to the little Welsh wizard from Llanystumdwy, and not insisted on punitive reparations, we might not have suffered the Second World War. Magnanimity in victory is a mark of a true statesman.

One of the most striking aspects of our visit was the vary small size of the man - only five foot and five inches - and slight with it. The most disconcerting aspect was watching the film of him chatting with Hitler in 1936. Mrs D asked me as we left whether I was was moved by my sense of pride in the achievements of a great Welshman, and whether it was diminished by his being a Liberal. I just said that we must remember that it was Lloyd George who brought down Asquith, and the Liberals have not threatened Downing Street ever since. I need to read a biography of Lloyd George.,

Good Luck Mick.

I'm told that Mick Bates, Liberal Democrat Assembly Member for Montgomeryshire is shortly to undergo hip replacement surgery at the Robert Jones and Agnes Hunt Orthopaedic Hospital at Gobowen. Despite his being an opponent of longstanding, this blog wishes Mick a speedy and successful recovery. I hope that he is back in the Assembly to play a full part in promoting the leadership ambition of Kirsty Williams - that's if Mike German doesn't change his mind about stepping down from the leadership of the Assembly Group.

I also hope that he is not fitted out with one of these squeaking hips that have caused so much trouble is America. It seems that hundreds of people have opted for a new more durable form of ceramic replacement hips, only to find that they squeak at 'inappropriate' moments. Now I've heard about squeaking headboards and squeaking mattresses - but never before a squeaking hip.

Night Off.

Sorry but no blogging tonight. I'm off to Ynys Mon. To learn something about local Government (only joking). In fact, I'm going to a meeting of RESEC, which stands for Research into Specialist Elderly Care. Its a charity which intends to arrange a conference in association with Bangor University next year. Care of the elderly is a subject in the news today. Its going to be in the news a lot in the future. I'll probably post about it tomorrow.

There will be no speeding on Ynys Mon tonight. I was speaking to my old friend, Peter Rogers last night. Peter is currently the High Sheriff of Ynys Mon, which means he has responsibility for hanging miscreants. I know its a long time since anyone was hanged for speeding, but it being Ynys Mon and Peter Rogers, I'm not taking the risk. I'm meeting Peter at the Old Bull at 7.00, and looking forward to seeing him again.

Rockin all over the world.

Spin Doctor in today's Wales on Sunday tells us that William Graham, AM last week asked of the Deputy First Minister in the National Assembly a question of high importance. Would the planned half hourly train service between Cardiff and Merthyr be up and running in time for the Status Quo concert on July 26th. I did not realise that William was a Quo fan, but I want to send out a warning to him, and other AMs who might be thinking of attending - born of experience. I used to be a follower of Francis Rossi and Rick Parfitt, and have much enjoyed their concerts. But I decided to fore-go this pleasure when I suffered a week's deafness after the last concert I went to.

Now, I realise that deafness can be a useful weapon in a politician's armoury, but it needs to be intermittent, partial and under the control of the politician concerned to be effective. Total deafness in no use to a politician at all. It leads to all sorts of trouble. Just look at what's happening to Gordon Brown. I've got a ticket for Bruce Springstein in Cardiff on June 15th though. See you there William.

Lib Dem Ferrets

Rang Edna this morning. Couldn't understand why she hasn't been in touch. Turns out she hasn't recovered from the trauma she suffered last week. It seems that she was cleaning outside the Lib Dem office when Mike German is reported to have informed his Assembly Colleagues that he was standing down next October. The BBC reported this as per the Lib Dem press release - which Edna reckons does not tell even half the story. She reckons that "German breaks promise and hangs on for another six months" should have been the headline. Sloppy journalism if you ask Edna.

Anyway back to the poor traumatised soul. She tells me that when Mike walked in (a bit late for effect), Peter Black asked him straight out about his promise to go after the Local Government elections. An awkward silence ensued. Jenny Randerson tried to inject some calm and change the subject - but Kirsty Williams started screaming hysterically. Eleanor Burnham rushed to the toilet and Mick Bates started pulling faces and humming a Bob Dylan song. Peter Black just started blogging in a quietly threatening way. And then the great pianist made his speech - complete with theatrical flourish.

"I believe we owe it to the great Liberal Democrat tradition, and in the wake of our glorious victory in the recent local council elections, (and every other election for that matter) that I, Michael German should remain as your leader. I am clearly the only one of us with the right balance of gravitas, intellectual authority, verbal dexterity and sheer animal magnetism to carry our great party to even greater electoral success and domination. I am king of the dispatch box, a master tactician, great pianist and probably a better performer in bed than either the 30 notches man, Nick Clegg, or the Monty Media Magnet, Opik".

Edna said it was a well prepared and delivered little speech, peppered with anecdotes, and was intended to end the silly nonsense of Mike German's retirement once and for all.

Edna tells me that all hell then broke loose. Quite upset her. The row reminded her of when her drunken father used to return from the pub after an argument with Aneurin Bevan. Kirsty started crying. Huge thunderous sobs - and whimpering "But you promised " in a high pitched screamy sort of broken voice. Eleanor disappeared to the Ladies again. Mick was still humming quietly to himself, and Peter Black was blogging furiously in the corner, looking like thunder. After a few minutes deafening silence, Jenny took Mike's hand, looked into his eyes, and broke the news to him. "Mikey, I think they all want you to resign". At first, a look of disbelief crossed his still youthful good looks. And then came the realisation, followed rapidly by the compromise. "Another six months. I can still be the leader all through the summer hols. And who knows. They might see sense if I give them long enough." The rest of the meeting was taken up discussing Eleanor's experiences on her two visits to the Assembly urinal.

Bob Davey, and others.

I know what its like to lose. Not just lose an election which could go either way. I know what its like to lose big time, when not expecting it. When my life has been turned upside down. I remember resigning (I had not much choice) from my position as Chair of the Development Board for Rural Wales. That almost destroyed me. And I remember losing my position on the National Assembly for Wales last May. I was knocked back by that too. So I think we can agree that I know a fair bit about what it feels like to lose.

So I felt for Bob Davey last Friday - despite my efforts to persuade voters to back his Conservative opponent. Bob couldn't have expected to lose. I went to the Wagon on Friday night to track him down, but just missed him. Anyway, I saw him yesterday and tried to share his pain. I also felt a bit of sympathy for Richard Noyce, the Lib Dem defeated by another Conservative that I'd been campaigned for. I'm told that he is feeling very low in defeat as well.

Bob's opinion is that Lembit Opik lost it for him, which bearing in mind that he was an 'Independent' takes a bit of working out. His theory is that there is so much antipathy to our MP at the moment, that huge numbers of voters are switching to the only party that can remove him, the Conservatives. If this is true, its rather promising news for yours truly, who will be standing against the Lib Dem MP at the next General Election. I'm told that Richard Noyce also feels that Lembit Opik cost him his seat. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Richard takes things further. Anyway, I'd advise all of last week's winners to spare a thought for the losers. It may be their turn some day.

Powys Council Update.

This may be boring to you but I want to spread the news about how things are shaping up at Powys County Council. Russell George (Newtown) and Gareth Ratcliffe (Hay on Wye) are joining the Management Board as nominees of the new Conservative Group. Both are young bright men who will soon get a grip on their portfolios, whatever they may be.

My guess is that there is a fair bit of tension amongst the PIGs (Powys Independent Group). Wynne Jones (Abermule), Dawn Bailey (Trewern) and Bobby Morgan (Llanbrynmair) have all defected to the PIGs from the MIGs (Montgomeryshire Independent Group), leaving the latter with just 13 members. Wynne Jones (who seemed to be leading the efforts to persuade MIGs to defect at last week's election count), Stephen Hayes (Montgomery), who I was told was helping Wynn in the defection promotion work, and Gwilym Vaughan (Glantwymyn), who I'm told may have influenced Bobby Morgan decision to defect, have all been elected as the PIG Board Members. Its been suggested to me that there could be an element of reward for services rendered here. Anyway, it means that Joy Shearer ( Tregynon), a long standing Board Member has been surprisingly dropped from the Board. The MIGs have not decided on their Board nominees yet, but it will probably be David Jones (Guilsfield), Graham Brown (Llandrinio) and Gwilym Evans (Trefeglwys) - unless there are shocks here as well.

Yesterday, I was talking to Bob Davey, who lost his seat to one of our Conservative members. We had quite a long chat about what had happened. Worth a separate post I think.

The Transfer of Power.

He was the brilliant new kid on the the block, travelling across the land with a big jar of honey under his arm taunting the all powerful big clunking fists to a rumble. His name was Cassius Clay and the clunking fists he was hunting down were those of the 'big ugly bear', Sonny Liston. I was a young member of the 'clattering classes' and a great fan of Clay's, who would later change his name to Mohammed Ali. When Cassius Clay was first elevated to the position of chief challenger, the bookies had his chances at about 8-1. He was given less chance of beating Liston than David Cameron was given of beating Gordon Brown in the summer of 2007. But as time went on, and the precocious challenger lived up to all the predictions he made, some people started to believe. But the big ugly Brown bear hid himself away in a cave, and growled at everyone who dared challenge him, and most people thought he was invincible. But the day eventually came when the big clunking fists of Sonny Liston were forced to enter the ring to face up to the dazzling footwork and flashing cut and thrust of Cassius Clay.

The early rounds were even, with the champion Liston doing well. The clunking fists seemed to be biding their time, even if the challenger was doing better than expected, taking account of his inexperience. Victory for the big ugly Brown bear seemed only a matter of time. And then Clay started to find his range. Liston looked confused. This was not in the script. He had been promised some tasty morsels of Brown bear fodder, but found an opponent with rapier like jabs, moving like a butterfly, and stinging like a bee. Suddenly, the invincible big ugly bear was on the back foot. To begin with no-one believed this shift in dominance of the ring would last. The ugly Brown bear was only taking a rest - and his authority would surely return.

Round seven, and there was an excitement in the air. The crowd began to realise that the big ugly bear was too big, too ugly and too much like a bear to compete with the shiny new fleet footed athlete who was taunting him, flicking out jabs, uppercuts and then fading out of range of the ponderous clunking fists. Suddenly 26% more of the crowd thought Cassius Clay was going to whup the big ugly bear's backside, which was still sore from the mighty kick which Local Government electors had just given it. And at the start of Round 8, the big ugly Brown bear just stayed in his corner, big clunking fists dangling helplessly by his side, defeated, pathetic and abject, unable to go on. No-one who saw it will ever forget. It was all over. Cassius Cameron was Prime Minister. I really must stop allowing my imagination to run away with itself.

Caption Competition

A few days ago I informed you of my little granddaughter, Ffion's response to the Venerable John Thelwell's dousing of her in Baptismal Water. Perhaps you may be able to suggest what Ffion was thinking.

Prime Minister's Questions

Been to Cardiff today to guest on BBC Wales' programme AM/PM, which takes in Prime Minister's Questions. Its a great programme to do, and lasts from approx 11.30 until 1.00. Usually two guests. Today, I was on with Siobhan McLelland - again. I think that the BBC should consider giving us our own programme. We could be Wales answer to Portillo and Abbott.

What on earth was Gordon Brown talking about today. The Labour Party is in the most frightful mess about this demand for an early referendum on Scottish Independence by Wendy Alexander. The players are all contradicting each other. Last night, I saw Hazel Blears with my own eyes tell us on Newsnight that this issue had been discussed at a Cabinet meeting. Yesterday, we saw film of Ms Alexander herself saying that she had discussed her extraordinary statement with Gordon Brown. Today, when David Cameron asked him if he agreed with Wendy, our Prime Minister denied that Wendy Alexander had said what she said. It was totally bizarre to watch. I really thought Gordon Brown looked like a completely washed out Prime Minister today. He was so on another planet that David Cameron has to go easy to avoid making people feel sorry for him. And tonight, I've just watched David Miliband tell Jeremy Paxman that he had never heard the matter discussed at Cabinet, directly contradicting Hazel Blears. I've never seen anything like it. Labour is falling apart.

I then 'appeared' on Taro Post on Radio Cymru to discuss Darren Millar's outrage that some Welsh local authorities are buying Daffodil bulbs from Holland and England, rather than buying Welsh bulbs. Apparently there has already been a protest to the Conservative office from Cornwall, bitterly denying that it is part of England. Anyway, it was a phone-in and I decided to back Darren to the hilt, and was expecting a bit of stick for making a frivolous point. But I got 100% support from every contributor. Dylan Jones, who like s a bit of argument on his programme was dumbfounded. I finished by insisting that every true Welshman who buys a daffodil next St David'd Day should insist that the flower in the buttonhole came from a Welsh bulb. And I wasn't even mocked for that. When you're on a roll, even the daft things come off.

Vermin at the Cil.

Six-o-clock this morning. One hell of a rumpus in the garden, about 20 feet from the bedroom window. All the Canada Geese (about 10 adults at pesent) suddenly broke into a full throated alarm call. Mrs D was first to the window, and there were all of our Canadas fronting up to a dog fox, who fancied one of our four new goslings for breakfast. For some reason, they were a long way from the safety of their large pool, and highly vulnerable. We have a small fish pond near the house, and the family had in desperation dived in and escaped into the middle, with the parents circling them like Wild West Indian wagons. The fox was no more than 6 feet from that which his stomoch desired. I've never seen this sort of stand off before, and was fascinated watching the fox just strolling around our lawns as if he owned the place. There is something wonderfully evocative about watching a wild fox on the prowl. Anyway, our gosling family remain intact - but I fear that Reynard will be back.

Perhaps it was the blatancy of this prince of vermin's visit that has fired up Mrs D's venom towards vermin in general. She went shopping for weapons while I was in Cardiff today, to deal with a plague of mice that have invaded the house. No way will I dare walk around the house tonight without my shoes on. There are a range of Little Nippers stationed at various strategic locations. She tells me she was contemplating buying some sort of noise gun, which will destroy the eardrums of Grey Squirrels, driving them off our bird feeders - and the eardrums of cats as well. Personally I think the squirrels deserve proper guns. It seems there is also some sort of machine that stops the neighbours dogs barking, without your neighbour knowing who did it. Apparently all of these new armaments are available at Charlies Stores in Welshpool. I wonder whether there's anything available to deal with Lib Dems.