No Sir, we are not all the bl***y same.

A few weeks ago, I received an email from a friend informing that Montgomeryshire's MP was lecturing on a cruise liner in the Mediterranean. "So what" I thought. Another friend of mine, an authority on wildlife, does the same thing. No reason why an MP shouldn't do that in September, as long as any benefit is recorded in the Register of Member's Interests. Forgot all about it.

And then on Monday of this week, my office received another email from a very disgruntled businessman from Torquay. I telephoned him to check it wasn't a wind-up. Initially, I decided to ignore it completely. But there were other recipients of the email from 'Disgruntled of Torquay' - and its contents have appeared in the Daily Mail and the Shropshire Star yesterday, and The Sun today. In the interests of accuracy, I reproduce the content of the email. It was dated December 5th..

"Today, I returned from my one and only holiday this year.

I was on board the Cruise ship Queen Victoria. For the last five days of this cruise your local MP was also on board giving two lectures. I only attended the first. It was the most sickening self serving rubbish I have ever heard. Essentially, he was trying to convince his audience that MPs were alright really. He even laughed off the fact that he's been exposed for claiming the value of a wig for what was supposed to be a charity event.

It is also interesting to note;

He must have got paid for this either in kind or in money terms.

Parliament is sitting. Why could he not do this while Parliament is in recess? Teachers do not get to go on holiday in term time, so why do those who are governed have to follow different rules from those who govern?

What would his constituents think about him going off on a holiday cruise liner while Parliament is sitting, and while there is the mother of all recessions on? Making money to boot.

On his blog there is an entry on 1st or 2nd December (i.e. while he was on this ship) calling on Liberal activists to meet in Asda's on Friday to campaign. So the little people do the work on a rainy Friday in Britain and Lembit lives it up in First Class on a luxury liner. Very egalitarian. I bet they would love him for that....

Just thought you might like to know."

I'm not in a position to know how much, if any, of this is true - but I do note that his office manager in Montgomeryshire has reported to have responded with "No comment". Problem with this is that it reflects on all of us who are, or want to be MPs. This afternoon, I was walking down Broad Street in Welshpool, when a stranger was rather rude to me. Seems that he had read Kelvin Mackensie's article in the Sun today, and wanted to (how shall I put this?) 'share his opinion' with me. After my protestation that I knew nothing of the article, he marched off shouting "You bl**dy politicians are all the bl**dy same" Well excuse me, but we're not. In Montgomeryshire there's David Rowlands (Ukip), Heledd Fychan (Plaid) and myself all very keen to represent Montgomeryshire at Westminster - and if elected, I cannot imagine any of us going on a 'private, paid for' holiday while Parliament is sitting. All three of us campaign, at significant cost to ourselves, striving for the opportunity to represent Montgomeryshire. No sir, we are not all the bl**dy same. Anyway, I feel better now that's off my chest.

Welcome Mohammad.

I've never met Mohammad Asghar. Until today he was a Plaid Cymru Assembly Member, representing South East Wales. Today he caused a bit of turbulence in Welsh politics by defecting to the Conservative Group in the National Assembly for Wales. I thought it was considerate to the sensitivities of Plaid Cymru that Mohammad and the Conservatives announced the defection on a day when the news could slip in quietly, overshadowed by the retirement of Rhodri Morgan.

So happens that I was a guest on Radio Cymru's 'Taro Post' today - with Helen Mary Jones, who remains a Plaid AM and is a prominent spokesperson for the party, and a fellow old pupil of Caereinion High School in Montgomeryshire. Our topic was 'Rhodri's legacy' but inevitably Mohammad's defection cropped up. Helen Mary had first go, and started banging on about Margaret Thatcher and John Redwood. I couldn't make much of what she was saying, but to be fair, she was holding a c*** hand. Anyway, when my turn came, I just said how pleased we were that Mohammad had decided to join us, and that I knew he'd been impressed by the Conservative Group in the National Assembly, and the leadership of David Cameron. Playing it cool was best, I thought.

Helen Mary also said that Mohammad should resign, a call made by others, including the leading Welsh pundit, Daran Hill. I was a bit non-committal on this. In general, I support the principle that when an elected representative changes parties mid-stream, they should resign, and seek re-election carrying their new colours. If he'd been elected as a 'constituency' AM, you would probably find evidence in previous posts of my view that resignation is the appropriate honourable course. But Mohammad is a 'regional' member, and all he would do by resigning is hand the seat to another Plaid Cymru member. He would not be able to fight an election. This rather confuses the issue. Interestingly, if no-one on the list Plaid Cymru presented at the last election in South Wales East were to be in a position to step into the shoes of a resigning Mohammad Asghar, the seat would lie vacant until the next General Election. (It seems that since the 2006 Government of Wales Act, this is the correct terminology). Proportional Representation is a complex business. In summary, this blog extends to Mohammad, a warm welcome onto our team.

UPDATE - Seems that I've misrepresented Daran's take on it. Better read his blog on it, or his comment.

Copenhagen

For the next two weeks, most countries of the world will have representatives at the Copenhagen climate summit. Its a very important conference, even if its likely to be dominated in the UK media by the Pre Budget Report - for the next few days at least. Its difficult to be certain what the aim of the Conference is, but I think it's to establish a 'pathway' to an international binding agreement to reduce carbon emissions by some agreed amount by an agreed future date. I know it sounds a bit woolly. But as a principle, I support this aim, though I recognise that many others do not. We are told that the majority of scientists in the field believe that huge reductions are crucial to prevent an environmental catastrophe for planet Earth. I suspect that most British people support decisive action to reduce emissions, and quickly - but that they do not accept the scale of policy change being demanded by some. That's about where I place myself.

But this post is about the disastrous way the supporters of most radical change are presenting their arguments. Even the generally impressive Ed Miliband, the UK Government's leading spokesman has now resorted to calling those who disagree with him 'flat earthers', and dismissing their opinions as 'irresponsibility'. This approach generates hostility, both towards himself, and the argument he's trying to make. His rudeness towards Lord Lawson on the BBC last night was arrogant and patronising, and did nothing but damage to his cause. No-one likes being called a flat earther.

I hope there is real progress at Copenhagen. Not some huge photo-op where they're all trying to cosy up to Obama, and trumpeting some media soundbite that's already been prepared. We need a commitment to real actions that will make a difference, both at the state level and internationally. The sort of thing I mean at the international level, is a compensatory package which will persuade Brazil to end deforestation, thus 'Saving the Amazon'. This can be justified from a 'biodiversity' standpoint as well. And at the national level, something like scrapping the excise licence, switching the tax to fuel consumption - or a Council Tax system tied to carbon emission levels. Not sure these ideas are workable, but its the sort of scale of change needed if any difference is going to be made.

But back to the blustering refusal to consider different opinions. The 'leaked emails from the UEA have had a defining impact. The evidence suggests that some of the most influential scientists in the world, responsible for the data on which so many other scientists have based their opinion may have been manipulating, or suppressing the figures. Suddenly, the supposed scientific consensus looks anything but. Total transparency, and willingness to engage with what are rather offensively referred to as 'deniers' will be essential to restore faith in the data. Debating with Lord Lawson, and explaining why he is wrong is better than insisting he has no right to speak. Depending on blind assertion will not persuade anyone, and no amount of bullying and denigration by Ed Miliband will make the slightest difference.

Parti Cut Lloi

Been to a concert today. It was held at Welshpool Livestock Market, at 2.00 this afternoon. There were probably 200 members of the local farming community there. S4/C were filming for Wedi Saith, and Dai Llanilar did the introduction - the sort that only Dai can do. I cannot look at him now without thinking of the programme he presented from a hot tub.

The entertainment was Parti Cut Lloi, 18 men of the Dyffryn Banw soil, led by the very feminine Sian James, harpist and singer of renown. They sing in the 'Plygain' tradition. I have an interest in this group, in that a few of them are 'family' - including Sian. Alun was in his suit, straight from his legal firm office, while most were in their normal livestock marketing clothes. If my Taid Coedtalog, or Uncle Wat Penparc were alive today, they would probably have been there. It was half an hour's splendid entertainment.

So if you see a Parti Cut Lloi concert advertised, buy a ticket. You'll enjoy it. Or buy the CD they were promoting today - 'Y Dyn Bach Bach'. If you want to buy the CD, email gwyn@sianjames.co.uk . Parti Cut Lloi translates to Calf's Kit Party, and Dyn Bach Bach translates to 'Little, Little Man'.

UPDATE - I'm informed in comments that Parti Cut Lloi translates into Calves Shed Party. I should add that I may have been wrong, but not because I translated incorrectly. I thought the word 'kit was an English Language synonym for 'shed'. That's how I, and everyone who worked for me on the farm always used it. It could be one of those things that established itself in my mind when I was very young.

How many Welsh MPs are needed?

I have no private knowledge about Conservative intentions regarding the number of MPs who should be representing Welsh constituencies in the House of Commons. This post is merely a personal observation on an issue receiving a fair bit of coverage at present. The latest contribution has come from the Institute of Welsh Affairs, here, where its Director, John Osmond writes about a speech delivered by Professor Robert Hazell, Director of the Constitutional Unit at University College London. The title sounds awfully impressive, which is probably why he's usually wheeled out whenever there's discussion about this sort of issue in Wales.

There are three strands to this debate. Lets consider them in turn. Firstly we have a proposal from David Cameron that there should be a 10% reduction in the total number of MPs. This suggests a reduction of 4 from the current total of 40 Welsh MPs. Its a proposal that seems to have been well received, and I'm content to support it.

Secondly, we have another Cameron suggestion - that the ratio of electorate to member should be equalised. Personally, I reckon there should be some recognition of population sparsity, and some allowance for anticipated population growth. Whatever, this proposal would mean that because of the current comparatively small electorates in Wales, there would inevitably be a further reduction in the number of Welsh MPs. This extrapolation seems to have been missed by Professor Hazell (or by John Osmond). Notwithstanding the two above considerations, I cannot see this is anything but reasonable. But I'm not able to calculate precisely how many Welsh MPs we're now down to.

And thirdly, there's what Professor Hazell refers to as a "devolution discount" - a reduction in the number of Welsh MPs to reflect the lesser workload of an MP, where there's a devolved Parliament or Assembly. However, I've not seen this proposal emanate from a Conservative source, so don't know how much credence to give it. Something similar did feature in the last Conservative manifesto, but I've heard nothing of it since. Personally, I would not support this, even if it is logical. It could easily be interpreted as a 'threat' or 'punishment' in the run up to a 'powers' referendum, and that will never do. Its a case of pragmatism before logic.

I've tried to avoid self interest in this post, presenting the issue on the basis of facts as I see them. Now here's the question - 'How many MPs would be able to do that if all this became a reality?'

What is Carwyn Jones talking about?

Carwyn Jones has made a very disaappointing start as First Minister elect, spouting one-eyed drivel about the need to protect Wales from a future Conservative Government. This makes him sound like a pale imitation of Rhodri Morgan. Perhaps he's been spending too much time with his old boss and Peter Hain during his leadership campaign. The BBC tells us that he believes it would be difficult to have a "constructive relationship" with a future Conservative Government which cut public services in Wales. He's supposed to have said "I don't think that a Conservative Government would hold Wales best interests at heart" plus a lot more bilge in similar vein. He's clearly allowed himself to be carried away by his margin of victory over Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis.

Let's just get real here. It's a Labour Government under which the UK economy has disintegrated to such a level that its spending £200,000,000,000 more than it is earning this year - and planning to continue doing into the distant future. It's a Labour Government which has instigated the Governor of the Bank of England to inform us that current public spending plans threaten our nation with bankruptcy. It's a Labour Government that has created a situation where there will have to be real reductions in public spending for years to come, which ever party forms the next Government. There is not a single commentator, outside of the Labour Party who thinks otherwise. And it's Labour and Labour led coalitions that have delivered a Welsh economy in free fall, with unemployment levels hitting record highs, and an education system worse funded than anywhere else in the UK. The rhetoric that Gordon Brown and Peter Hain use is akin to the protestations of a drunk driver blaming the emergency services for the injuries inflicted on the innocent pedestrian. What Carwyn needs to do is not ape this nonsense, but tell us what plans he has to repair some of the damage inflicted on our nation during the shameless 'give-away culture' so loved by his predecessor. I suppose the next thing will be an attack on the wealth of the Conservative AMs, unless there will be more millionaires in his Cabinet that on the opposition benches.

What an A**hole

How often have you been forced to put your head in your hands when watching someone putting forward a shared viewpoint in a totally disastrous way. Just think about how all those who are arguing that we need massive cuts in carbon emissions felt when watching Newsnight tonight. Martha Kearney was chairing a debate between an academic from the University of East Anglia, and a rather loud climate change sceptic from the US.

I suspect most of us started out with an instinctive warmth for the professor. At least he was willing to go public and try to justify what seems unjustifiable. But what an incredibly arrogant and unpleasant advocate he proved to be. After demanding that he should be allowed to justify the 'tweaking' of information uninterrupted, he ended the programme by observing of his quite jovial opponent "What an asshole". As Lord Lawson might say "With enemies like that, who needs friends".

Backing Red Meat

Sir Paul McCartney is a good singer. Well he might be a good singer. I was a John Lennon man myself, so I'm a bit biased against him. Whatever, he makes a whole lot more sense when he's singing than when he starts preaching about the impact red meat has on the environment. Charlie Brooks, writing in today's Telegraph shares my low opinion of Sir Paul's prejudiced opinions. I have no problem with those who prefer to be vegetarian - as long as they don't start telling the rest of us what to eat. Yesterday, Sir Paul was in Brussels outlining his belief that eating red meat is a major cause of climate change, and to promote the idea of Meat-Free Monday. What he's doing of course, is piggy-backing the climate change debate to pursue his 'holier-than-thou' preaching about vegetarianism. As Charlie Brookes writes, his opinions might count for more if he wasn't one of the worst carbon footprint offenders on the planet.

So happens this subject came up last night at a meeting of the North Powys Grassland Society annual meeting last night, where I was one of a 3-member Question Time panel. Inevitable the subject of cows breaking wind had an airing. I do not deny that this is an issue. I understand that sheep burping from the 'other end' poses a similar a similar problem. What we need is more research into cattle diets to reduce the problem. We ostomates understand the issue only too well. After my lower bowel resection in 2002, I had to learn not to eat anything that would lead to embarrassing 'noise'. Same with cows. There's a lot of good work going on at Aberystwyth University and in the US. Apparently feeding them garlic improves things hugely.

Production of red meat is the main form of farming in most of Wales - and its a sustainable industry. In Wales the main part of the diet is grassland, which requires little ploughing up of the turf, which does release CO2. Grass takes CO2 out of the atmosphere, offsetting the gas that is emitted by the grazers. I suppose Sir Paul McCartney would prefer us to plough up our land every year, piling on the fertilizer and sprays - probably onto GM into the bargain, to grow grain for humans to eat without converting it into meet. Its always sensible to look at the wider picture. You see more - if you have your eyes open that is. Sir Paul was speaking 'yesterday' - and that was one of my least favourite.

The Climate Change Debate

Today, a huge new wind farm was opened off the coast of North Wales. Now what is one to think about it - in the context of climate change discussion. Over the last few days, such discussion has been transformed, especially in the US. The publication of 'leaked' emails, emanating from Professor Phil Jones' previously hugely influential Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia has exploded into the debate like an Exocet. Prof Jones standing down today has added to the mayhem. Almost the entire 20,000 strong cast of delegates filling the planes which are filling the skies as they head to Copenhagen this coming weekend are trying to play it down. But the sceptical juices of the non participant public is now in full flow.

I've always found this whole debate difficult. Instinctively, I've been on the side of 'believers', but some of the rhetoric seems so 'over-the-top' that 'believer' is no longer a description I'm comfortable with. Much of it does not seem to be based on common sense. In today's Telegraph, Charles Moore reminds us that Gordon Brown thinks we have just a few days to "save the planet". The article is worth reading - because its representative of what is being written all over the world since the leaked emails hit the headlines. Suddenly, Lord Nigel Lawson has the audience he has been striving to find for years. Prince Charles has said something along the same lines as the Prime Minister. I simply do not believe it. And once part of the rhetoric becomes unbelievable, everything is questioned. And then we find out that the data on which much the science is supposed to have been based has been deliberately 'skewed'. There must be a thoroughly and genuinely independent inquiry into what Professor Phil Jones' CRU has been up to.

But back to the turbines off the Rhyl coast. I don't like off shore wind farms at all, but accept them - just as I've come to accept new nuclear power stations. Neither do I object to the huge new development called Gwynt y Mor, off Llandudno. Still do not think onshore turbines are worthwhile though. The landscape damage is too high a price to pay for pathetically little. I wonder how many turbines would be needed to counter the carbon footprint of the Copenhagen Conference - assuming the wind blows all weekend. Maybe Professor Jones can work that one out, while he's on his unexpected extended leave.

Choosing a Cabinet.

As touring the blogosphere tonight, I note that Carwyn Jones is having lots of advice about who to appoint to his first Cabinet. So I don't see why I shouldn't join in - at least in general terms. The first requirement will be for the new Leader to put his stamp on things by springing a surprise or two - but not easy when you think about it. He will also have to disappoint someone that's seen as his friend. Successful leaders have to be seen as tough, and willing to take decisions that are not welcome in their own kitchen. I'm assuming that Plaid Ministers will all stay put.

Some long standing Ministers will probably be asked to leave the Cabinet, if they haven't decided to go anyway. I'd expect Andrew Davies, Jane Hutt and Brian Gibbons to fall into this category - and maybe the retiring Jane Davidson (but Carwyn may feel he cannot afford to lose her and say that she's going in the summer - dangling a carrot in front of Deputy Ministers). He will probably bring in his campaign manager and leadership opponents, though he might be tempted to offer Huw no more than a Deputy role. (Probably not though). Everyone expects promotion for best mate, John Griffiths - but this could be where Carwyn demonstrates his ruthless side! (But again, probably not). Maybe he'll repeatt he trick of an AM as Counsel General. This would leave room for the splendid Carl Sargeant, as a nod in the direction of North Wales. I should also make reference to Carl's outstanding ability - or I'll have Aneurin Glyndwr targeting me.

Beyond the above, he must do something 'different' to make a mark - so everyone else will come from the backbenches - and I just do not know the AMs elected in 2007 well enough. Perhaps he will just go for Lesley Griffiths or the media ever present Alun Davies, but if he does, its all so predictable. He's got to come up with something to surprise us - Carl as Minister for Sport perhaps. Perhaps Jane Davidson will have to go after all. Only problem with all this is that its so predictable. Go on, surprise us First Minister (elect). Surely there'll be one surprise.